Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
